Is the French government about to fall?
Squabbles over the annual budget have put the Barnier government on a knife-edge
Back in June, following some bad European election results, President Macron decided to dissolve the country’s parliament and call new elections. Some saw it as a fit of pique while Macron himself said it was a chance for the country to have an essential moment of “clarification”.
“C'est un temps de clarification indispensable”
Emmanuel Macron, 9 June 2024
There was no clarification. In fact, the returning parliament was even more divided than the one Macron dissolved. With three almost equal blocs, split between the left, the centre and the far-right, even naming a prime minister and forming a government took weeks. Michel Barnier was the lucky recipient of that poisoned chalice in early September and, just three months later, his job and his government look as if they will have trouble making it through to the end of the week, let alone the end of the month.
So what’s gone wrong?
Despite Michel Barnier’s long government experience, proven diplomatic skills and even his confident and witty management of parliamentary debates, his government was never on a sure footing. Within a month of taking on the job, he had to deal with a confidence motion against him in parliament and was only saved because the far-right Rassemblement National refused to back it.
Once in office, Barnier made much of the poor state of the public finances that he inherited and revealed a budget for 2025 that he promised would put France back on the right track. Parties on the left and right were unhappy with what they saw and threatened to vote against it once they got the chance. Despite concessions, mostly to the Rassemblement National, it was clear by Monday 2 December that the votes were not there.
The need to get a budget agreed prompted Barnier to use the now infamous 49.3 mechanism. This clause of the constitution allows the prime minister to push through certain legislation even without a vote in parliament. That legislation includes finance bills and legislation regarding the funding of social security, which was the topic of Monday’s debate.
« Le Premier ministre peut, après délibération du Conseil des ministres, engager la responsabilité du Gouvernement devant l'Assemblée nationale sur le vote d'un projet de loi de finances ou de financement de la sécurité sociale. Dans ce cas, ce projet est considéré comme adopté, sauf si une motion de censure, déposée dans les vingt-quatre heures qui suivent, est votée dans les conditions prévues à l'alinéa précédent. Le Premier ministre peut, en outre, recourir à cette procédure pour un autre projet ou une proposition de loi par session »
Article 49.3 of the French Constitution
Using the 49.3 rule exposes the government to a confidence vote and a motion de censure was duly filed, with parties on the left and far-right promising to support it. The vote is scheduled to take place on Wednesday 4 December, at which point the Barnier government could fall. This would be the first time that has happened since 1962.
Barnier predicted grave consequences for France if his budget failed to get through, warning in a TV interview a few days before the vote of “serious turbulence on the financial markets”.
«Une tempête probablement assez grave et des turbulences graves sur les marchés financiers»
Michel Barnier, TF1, 26 November 2024
There are even fears that France could experience an American-style “shutdown”, where the government is no longer able to fund certain core services. Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National, desperate to avoid being labelled as irresponsible, has assured that this isn’t possible. “No, there is no risk of an American-style shutdown,” she wrote in an article in Le Figaro, citing procedures that allow the previous year’s budget to be rolled over.
« Non, il n’y a pas de risque de “shutdown” à l’américaine en cas de censure du budget »
Marine Le Pen, Le Figaro, 26 November 2024
Perhaps Michel Barnier, the wily politician and seasoned diplomat, has another ace up his sleeve that will bring the Rassemblement National back on side. In the meantime, political options seem unclear. President Macron is unable to call new elections until June 2025 at the earliest. He could name a new prime minister, but he or she could end up in exactly the same position. This is why many are calling for Macron himself to step down, prompting a fresh presidential election. Few people are expecting that, but then few people expected Macron to hit the dissolution button on the French parliament six months ago. At this point, anything is possible.
Links
Article 49.3 and how it works https://www.info.gouv.fr/actualite/l-article-49-3-comment-ca-marche
Marine Le Pen says an American-style shutdown won’t happen in France https://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/marine-le-pen-non-il-n-y-a-pas-de-risque-de-shutdown-a-l-americaine-en-cas-de-censure-du-budget-20241126
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